Although some might argue that Pacquiao's previous fights against the likes of Marco Antonio Barrera, Erik Morales, Juan Manuel Marquez, Oscar De La Hoya and Ricky Hatton were his biggest tests, I have to disagree. Miguel Cotto, at 29 years old with record of 34-1, has been at or near the top of the welterweight division for 3 years. He has wins over 4 welterweight champions (Quintana, Judah, Mosley and Clottey) with his only loss coming to the heavy-handed Antonio Margarito. In hindsight, there is ample reason to believe that Margarito's hands that night were especially heavy, given his trainer's history of adding plaster to his gloves. Perhaps Cotto's only defeat would have been another victory if the fight had taken place on a level playing field.
Therefore, I believe that Miguel Cotto will greatly test Manny Pacquiao tonight. Pacquiao's other fights at or above 140 lbs were the De La Hoya and Hatton matches. One could arguably say that both fighters were past their prime and way too easily hit. Hatton looked completely outclassed within the first round. De La Hoya's greatest accomplishment was staying off of the canvas. Cotto is younger, faster and better than both Hatton and De La Hoya. What will this mean for the fight?
For weeks I have been thinking that Pacquiao is going to win by stoppage sometime around the 6th round. But as the fight draws closer, I'm starting to think that I've underestimated what Cotto is going to be throwing at the Pac man. Manny was able to tee off on Hatton because there wasn't very much coming back at him. Cotto will be throwing, and he'll be landing. Both fighters are capable of knocking each other down in my opinion. There exists the possibility that Cotto will simply be too strong and too comparable in speed for Pacquiao to win. Cotto's best chance for victory would seem to involve using a powerful body attack and sharp boxing skills. Is he capable of this? Yes.
At the end of the day, however, it's not just about Cotto and what he's capable of. Pacquiao will be bringing his best as well. So far, there has been no rival for Pacquiao's speed. There have really only been 3 fights where Pacquiao has been hit a lot - the 2 fights with Marquez and the first fight with Morales. Pacquiao is usually able to overwhelm opponents with fast combinations and great foot movement while avoiding punishment himself. I believe he will be able to do this again. The deciding factor in the fight, I believe, will be Cotto's defensive problems. Cotto has been hit a lot in several fights, including his last one against Joshua Clottey. I believe Pacquiao will hit Cotto even more tonight. For entertainment purposes, I hope Cotto can win some rounds, but I'm still picking Pacquiao, by 9th round stoppage.
