Jay and I are going to spring for the Holyfield-Valuev fight today on PPV. I know we probably shouldn't, but Valuev's fights are hard to catch and this could be Evander's last. This should be Evander's last. Evander looks ripped as usual at 214 lbs and Valuev is surprisingly light at 311. He weighed 328 for his title defense against Monte Barrett just two years ago.
In my estimation, this fight comes down to how much true stamina Evander Holyfield has. The moment he becomes a sitting duck for Valuev, this fight could end. While Valuev is not a huge puncher, he can knock people down and he can also put punches together. While his greatest weapon is unquestionably his jab, Valuev also fights with caution and possesses a great chin.
What Evander has to offer is a different story. Holyfield is likely to be the faster fighter. He is also the better tactition (meaning that he delivers punches with more skill) and can throw impressive combinations. However, Evander takes long breaks during rounds and has a tendency, at this stage of his career, to lean in with one punch and then clinch. Valuev has battled very competitively with John Ruiz through 2 fights (in 2005 and 2008). I'm going to use that as a barometer for this fight. Ruiz battled competitively with Holyfield in 2000 and 2001. Since that time, Ruiz has declined slightly but Holyfield has declined significantly. Because Holyfield is not as good as Ruiz and because Ruiz could not defeat Valuev, I make Valuev the favorite by either unanimous decision or late round TKO. There is only an outside chance that Holyfield's faster hands and better looking combinations could steal rounds in a tactical match, leading to Holyfield emerging victorious in a close decision. This is why we're watching...
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