Scheduled for War

Great rivalries are rare in boxing these days, but without question the 3 previous fights between Israel Vazquez and Rafael Marquez have earned them the highest respect from fans and historians alike. Marquez won their first fight, with Vazquez stopped while on his stool, the victim of a broken nose. Vazquez rallied to win the 2nd fight by TKO, after being dropped earlier by Marquez, and fight number 3 was a back-and-forth war won by Vazquez on the scorecards. Oh, and the 3rd fight also featured a 12th round knockdown by Vazquez that made the difference in the fight.

These are 2 fighters that have essentially drained their athletic gifts and boxing skills almost dry by fighting each other. 25 Rounds have already passed, and tonight we hear the bell for round 26. The question on everyone's mind seems to be: Who has more left? Who is still the fighter that they once were? Who can survive this brutal match-up?

I've flip-flopped in my thinking on this one. My initial impression was that Vazquez, who naturally fights at a slightly higher weight, might out-strong Marquez again and win by late TKO. But after looking at the weigh-in pictures, it's Marquez who still looks in good condition and relatively undamaged. Vazquez has extreme puffiness (scar tissue?) around both of his eyes, and just has that Arturo Gatti-style appearance of a human punching bag. I just can't imagine how his face is ready for 12 rounds.

My prediction: KO 11 Marquez. If there's anyone who might be more motivated, it's Marquez, who has lost the last 2 fights between them. Marquez is also the slightly better boxer, and his superior quickness and left jab might do enough damage to Vazquez to cause problems. I hope that fight 4 is of the same style of the previous 3, but at the end of the day, I'm expecting a win for Jay's Head Hunters and Rafael Marquez.