Detailed Fight Analysis

Manny Pacquiao (51-3-2, 38 KOs) vs Antonio Margarito (38-6, 27 KOs)

Some interesting results at the scales for starters. Margarito at the 150 lb limit, but Pacquiao comes in at 144 1/2. Why Pacquiao would choose to have less muscle on his frame is puzzling to me, but he obviously is concentrating on speed and quickness in this fight.

Margarito's best weapons are his hooks to the body and his chin. He takes a great punch, as evidenced by fights with Cotto, Clottey and Paul Williams. Margarito has had far fewer quality fights than Pacquiao and has scored many of his KOs against lesser opposition. Margarito brings power and tenacity to the fight, as well as being in great condition.

Pacquiao's best weapons are his combination punching and footspeed. He's able to move around the ring (when he's at his best) and throw punches in bunches, usually overwhelming opponents with his offensive onslaught. Pacquiao has put Erik Morales, Juan Manuel Marquez, Ricky Hatton, David Diaz and Miguel Cotto on the deck with his power shots. But none of those guys are as big as Margarito.

The obvious size difference has me worried a bit for Manny. Pacquiao takes a good shot, but taking one of Margarito's shots may be different. Margarito has a high work-rate so Pacquiao may have fewer chances to just tee off than he had against Clottey, Cotto and De La Hoya. If Margarito is unfazed by his power (which I actually think will be the case), what's going to stop him from throwing hard shots all night long? Can Pacquiao stay away? Can Pacquiao really duck everything that Margarito is throwing at him? Can Pacquiao take those punches and just keep coming?

Some in Pacquiao's camp have expressed concern that this wasn't his best training camp. I think this is the crucial factor in the bout. If Pacquiao is indeed less than his usual self, I actually believe he will fall victim to a knockout, around the 11th round. Pacquiao will need to be superman to win. He'll have to throw tons of punches, be light on his feet, and shake off some hard body shots in order to leave with the win by decision. He's the better fighter, but this size difference (and the fact that Margarito is still young and physically in his prime) makes things very interesting....